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Narendra Modi will be the Prime Minister of India for at least three terms. Why?

Narendra Modi will be the Prime Minister  of India for at least three terms.   Why?

Narendra Modi will be the Prime Minister  of India for at least three terms.

Why?

Narendra Modi is politician. He is ‘The Politician’. He has ideas. His ideas have ideas. He is the first Prime Minister in 30 years who has the authority to take a decision and the authority to overrule a decision. He controls the Government, the BJP Legislature Party and the entire BJP rank and file. All the MPs owe their existence to him and most CMs of BJP are his appointees. He knows how to win elections. He runs a tight ship. He controls every single piece of information that goes out from his Govt. This helps in unity of command, streamlining of decision making, non-duality of authority and quicker and faster implementation. Exactly what Modi wanted.

Modi  has empowered the bureaucracy to take decisions without fear, posted talented ministers in critical ministries like Railway, Finance, Defence etc. and brought in key people and talent from outside the Government. He knows whom he needs and gets them there. Those who are not so famous like Piyush Goyal, Smriti Irani are there because they are loyal to him and depend on him for every single decision. He interacts with their secretaries without them effectively showing the ministers that perform or perish. And perform they will. The key ministries on Raisina Hill (Defence, Finance, Home and External Affairs) work under his dictates and he exercises complete control over them, hence effectively the entire Government.

His administration is highly centralised and the benefit of this is that the public perception which builds is that everything that is happening is becaue of him and its Modi who is doing everything and a single person has done so much (when actually many others have contrubued as well). They even tend to forget the minor shortcomings. Shivraj Singh Chauhan has used this effectively to counter any anti-incumbency that existed against him or any of his ministers and won three elections straight. Modi has 340 NDA MPs in Lok Sabha. Add to that 39 of AIADMK and 19 of BJD. TRS, YSRC all will support if need be. Modi’s acceptability has grown here because his Government has stopped the step-motherly treatment thst was given to states earlier. He has nearly 400 MPs in his favour, literally the entire house is with him. How low could the numbers fall.

Modi adapts. He understood immediately that his Gujarat way of bypassing Assembly will not work when the winter session failed. In winter session, Modi hardly spoke but in Budget session Modi spoke on all major issues. It shows he is not afraid to speak to his political equals and exchange debates. It was not seen in Gujarat Assembly. His MLAs got all his bills passed for him.  And this change was visible in an over-productive Budget session. Earlier he worked like a CEO now he is both a CEO and Chairman, Board of Directors.

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Another reason is that Governments which have posted 8% growth have been successfully reelected again and again. Examples are UPA in 2009, Bihar, Gujarat, MP and Chattisgarh. And the economy is bullish and by 2018 it will be at least 8.5%. People will have hope, job opportunities and will certainly give him another chance.

The speed with which he is going is mind blowing. The Insurance Bill, Mines and Minerals, Coal were cleared in one sessions. Land Bill may have united the opposition but has not rallied the poor against him simply because they don’t have any land. A contentious piece of legislation, though, its gonna transform rural India and this is where the real fear of Congress exists. Constitutional reform of GST which would be single largest tax reform since independence could not be done by UPA in 8 years since the idea was mooted. It will be implemented in due course as most of the states now support it. The pressure is on Congress party because SP, Mamata, Bihar all want it to be passed. NJAC was passed in two days as opposed to years it took for the Congress to try and fail. Though it has been quashed by the judiciary, but the judiciary has been brought under pressure to reform itself and collegium system will be overhauled serving the purpose.  People are impatient but he is even more. And he knows it.

He is a first time MP and politician in National level politics and does not have any legacy issues and can choose to take whatever stand his Government wants without any repercussions or political accusations by opponents. For him there won’t be change of stand because he did not have one earlier and hence the public perception will not change about him or his Government and in politics perception drives public opinion.

Another key reason is the massive efforts made by the party to increase its support base. The BJP has grown from the Upper & Middle Class Party of Brahmans(priests) and Banias (Merchants) to an all caste, all community and an All India Party. The dalits have embraced the BJP and the BJP has embraced the dalits which has been a major factor in their recent victories. Elections are due in Bihar(tough but winnable), Assam(decent chances) and UP(high chances) and Punjab(possible) and Uttarakhand and Himachal(decent chances of winning) which will consolidate the BJP even further. The core support base of the party will not erode despite Govt formation with PDP in J&K because they understand that BJP is being pragmatist and not opportunist by being in power in J&K.

Haters are gonna hate BJP and obstructionists are gonna obstruct but BJP with its brute majority will bulldoze its way inside the Parliament ensuring speedy legislation. He does not believe in Committee way of functioning and waiting for years to get the report and decide. He takes the decisions. His decisions may go wrong but his decisiveness is what people will see in the end and admire. And admiration translates into votes. For the first time North-East is a priority for a Government and it has generated a lot of goodwill for the party throughout India.

Modi is a seller, he knows how to sell. Opposition will accuse him of going on foreign trips too much and then he sells these trips to tribals/poors by saying that he had gone to look for cure for their sickle cell anaemia/ increasing protein in their pulses. He believes in tangible outcomes. All his foreign tours/visiting dignatories are accompanied with something concrete. Rafale from France, Nuclear Deal with USA, Australia and Canada, Hydro Power with Bhutan and Nepal, 35 Billion USD investment and Bullet train from Japan, Kamov Ka-226T helicopters from Russia and so on. So his gradesheet is always good and glowing. He knows how to communicate and when to communicate.He understands what his constituents want to hear from him. And he speaks and speaks well. He convinces his voters about his decisions and is not dependent on the press or media for it. He may not care for all the stakeholders(read media, civil society, NGOs) but his shareholders i.e. his voters are always a priority to him. He has created a separate PR machinery. Half the news channels are busy reading his tweets. He speaks directly to the people and makes assurances and tries to keep them and try is all what people want. In an another question it has been asked why Modi is criticising the opposition in Canada. I will tell you the reason here. Supreme Court recently asked centre to implement NRI voting and the centre is going to do that. So these NRIs will become shareholders rather than stakeholders. This will add 18000 more voters in each constituency. And when margins in many places are less than 10000 , it will make a huge impact on each constituency, maybe somewhere more somewhere less. And they will vote for BJP as no other party has done more for them than the BJP right from Vajpayee Ji’s time. So Modi is always doing these community addresses in different countries so as to canvass votes for his party. Now you get why he is so brutal about the opposition even abroad.

The best thing about Modi is that he loves his job and he is not doing a favour to us by doing it. His one statement which made me realise his urgency was that he wants to wipe out poverty from India in one generation.

So, Narendra Modi will be there. Rest assured. His Government is moving with speed, skill and resoluteness and will spare no efforts to try fulfill the aspirations of Indians.

 

by Samir Kumar, Indian, IITKgp !! Politics, Foreign Policy, Economy, Tech, Analysis and Logic
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